The record

Claims are cheap, so here is the check. Each time we release a model, we score it on sales held out of its training and publish the results here. As sales made after its training data ends settle, we check it on those too. "Typical miss" is the median gap, in dollars, between our estimate and the actual sale price.

Salvage

With VIN

91.0%inside the 9-in-10 range

50.4%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss35%smaller than a same-model median: $752 vs $1,150

Without VIN

91.0%inside the 9-in-10 range

50.6%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss30%smaller than a same-model median: $808 vs $1,150

Share of sales inside the 9-in-10 range, by estimated value

	With VIN	Without VIN
Under $1,500	89.9%	89.9%
$1,500–$3,000	92.4%	92.5%
$3,000–$6,000	91.4%	91.7%
$6,000–$12,000	90.3%	90.0%
Over $12,000	90.3%	90.3%

By level of detail

	Inside the 9-in-10 range	Inside the 5-in-10 range
Year, make and model	91.6%	51.3%
+ damage	91.1%	51.0%
+ mileage	91.4%	50.9%
+ VIN	91.3%	50.5%
VIN only	91.5%	50.7%
VIN + damage	90.9%	50.5%

The range holds 9 times in 10 at every level of detail, from a year, make and model alone to a full description.

Measured on 60,000 salvage sales held out of training, sold January 1, 2025 to October 2, 2026. Typical miss is measured on 59,648 of them. On the most recent 4,536 sales, made September 15 to October 2, 2026, the typical miss was 40% smaller than a same-model median: $485 vs $806.

Retail

VIN, mileage and trim

89.8%inside the 9-in-10 range

49.1%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss63%smaller than a same-model median: $736 vs $2,000

VIN and mileage

89.6%inside the 9-in-10 range

49.7%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss51%smaller than a same-model median: $975 vs $2,000

VIN only

89.6%inside the 9-in-10 range

49.8%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss14%smaller than a same-model median: $1,717 vs $2,000

Year, make and model, mileage and trim

88.8%inside the 9-in-10 range

48.5%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss58%smaller than a same-model median: $841 vs $2,000

Year, make and model, and mileage

89.5%inside the 9-in-10 range

50.0%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss37%smaller than a same-model median: $1,252 vs $2,000

Year, make and model

89.8%inside the 9-in-10 range

50.0%inside the 5-in-10 range

Typical miss3%smaller than a same-model median: $1,935 vs $2,000

Share of sales inside the 9-in-10 range, by estimated value

	VIN, mileage and trim
Under $15,000	83.4%
$15,000–$25,000	89.7%
$25,000–$40,000	91.0%
Over $40,000	88.5%

Measured on retail sales held out of training, sold July 9 to October 6, 2026: between 5,994 and 7,443 sales, depending on the level of detail. These sales fall within the training period. Our first test on retail sales made after training ends reports in early November, and its results will replace these.

Updated with each model release.